Your Latest Florida Weather Information

As of 5 PM we are now tracking Tropical Depression 17. Depression 17 is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm as it recurves back to the NE. In fact, some of the models are forecasting a major hurricane before it crosses Cuba. Conditions in this area are extremly favorable for development. Near the end of the forecast period, verticle shear is expected to increase and this will bring about an abrupt weakening of the system at day 5. Late season storms are sometimes very slow moving so the forecast guidance may be too quick in taking the system out of the Caribbean.

We are tracking Tropical Storm Kyle in the Atlantic!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are tracking Tropical Storm Kyle in the Atlantic. Kyle appears to be gettinhg his act together as he moves to the n-ne. He is in an area that is demonstating some wind shear which is the main facter in keeping the system in check. The intensity forecast is somewhat probleatic as the system is going to enter an area with less wind shear in the coming days. That should allow Kyle to strengthen. Depending on the rate of intensification at that time, we will tghen have a better idea of what strength Kyle will be when he nears New England or the Canadian Maritimes. Kyle could be very well be a hurricane when he approaches these areas.

The model forecast is also a bit problematic in the far reaches of the forecast. Residents in the NE US need to pay close attention to the progress of Kyle. This is especially true for New England. It is not out of the question for New England to experience hurricane conditions.

Although Kyle should start to weaken once he gets north of the Gulf Stream, there is a good possibility that he will maintain hurricane strength as he nears the New England area.
We will have to closely moniter the track changes (if any) over the next few days.
Invest 94 is now over the Carolinas with wind gusts near hurricane force but with no closed circulation, it cannot be officially classified.

If you have friends, relatives in the NE, please advise them to keep a heads up on the weather this coming week.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information! Invest 93.

Hi everybody. A special tropical disturbance statement has been issued for Invest 93. Satellite images and bouy reports indicate that a tropical depression may be forming. The system is starting to take on “pre” banding features that indicate cyclonic turning. Areas in Puerto Rico, The Virgin Islands, Hispanolia and the US should moniter the progress of this system. The latest models are showing a more northerly motion at present which if it holds, would keep it well east of us and it looks like it could be a threat for the Mid Atlantic area.

An Air Force recon is on the way to investigate the system so I suspect the first advisory will be issued at 2 PM for Tropical Depression 11. I will keep you advised as I get new model data and recon data.

Latest models are here. I will have them updated by 12 as I still have to generate the new ones.

Hanna Heads Up The East Coast…Warnings issued

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Our friends in the Mid Atlantic region are going to experience a rare tropical storm this week end. Tropical Storm warnigs have been issued all the way up to Rhode Island. Here is the full Hurricane Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1203 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

..TROPICAL STORM HANNA STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING…

AT 11 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND…INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR
AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND…INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…ALL OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY…THE TIDAL POTOMAC…WASHINGTON D.C…DELAWARE
BAY…NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA…
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.  HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF WATCH HILL
RHODE ISLAND TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK
ISLAND…MARTHA’S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES… 95 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 140 MILES…230 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ON SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
MOVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL…IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER LANDFALL AND HANNA SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES…
415 KM MAINLY TI THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 978 MB…28.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

 

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
7 INCHES FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA…NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-070415-
/O.UPG.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.TR.W.0001.080906T0403Z-000000T0000Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1203 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

..NEW INFORMATION…

UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

..AREAS AFFECTED…

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS…

LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY…LONG
ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY…NEW YORK
HARBOR…PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS…SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM
JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY…MORICHES INLET NY TO
MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM…FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES
INLET NY OUT 20 NM…SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT
20 NM.

..WATCHES/WARNINGS…

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE
BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD PREPARE QUICKLY FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS.

..WINDS…

AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND…HANNA
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT…MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS
FORECAST…THESE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTER AND
EASTERN WATERS.

..TORNADOES…

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
TRACK OF HANNA…WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE WATERS NEAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

..NEXT UPDATE…

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM THIS MORNING.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hanna 5 AM update!

 
Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Hanna continues to meander near Haiti. She is now drifting towards the north at 2 mph. A gradual n or NW component is expected to resume soon. The global models have again shifted east and the NHC track is on the far west side of the model suite. If this trend continues, I would expect another eastward swift within the next 2 advisories. these shifts, if they happen, would be enough to keep the highest winds out of our area. In fact, this would then be a Carolina/Northeast Hurricane or Tropical Storm! If the track follows more to the east as the models currently have it, the system would run right through Long Island, Conn and Mass. We will have to see if the official forecast follows suit with this model trend. That is my thinking right now.

On the current track, the cyclone will be about 120 miles to our east of us at the closest swath.The eastward movement last night is the thing that shifted the tracks back to the east. The current local forecast still has “tropical storm conditions possible” in the forecast for Thursday night. The current wind gusts expected on the current path are 35 mph. We will have to see if this forecast holds.

It is worth noting that the current forecast track is produced from drop sound measurements in and around Hanna using the Gulf stream IV Jet aircraft. This information usually results in very accurate model runs so confidence is a bit higher on the new forecast track.

Hanna Track Slightly Shifted

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. As I previously forecasted, the track has indeed shifted a bit to the east. This is what we want to see. The models are indicating that Hanna will begin her move very soon. I am sure everybody is holding their breath with this storm , I know I am. The new track will take Hanna as far north as Massachusetts with tropical storm force winds. She is forecast to be an 80 mph hurricane as she passes to our east (hopefully).

Hanna has a very ragged appearance on satellite and although the intensity is still at 65 mph, she may actually be weaker. A recon is scheduled to fly in tonight and we may find a weaker storm then currently advertised. This storm could very well be an entire East Coast event. I don’t know how much confidence I have in the new track as of yet. I have yet to see a track stick any longer then one advisory with this cyclone. We will have to look at the new model runs when they come out. Info from the last recon not long ago will be inputted and we will see what we come up with. Hopefully by then Hanna will start moving so we can get her out of here. We are currently on the far left side of the cone but remember, any slight deviation can cause large differences in how we will experience Hanna. If she follows the current track, she will be approximately 140 miles off our coast at her closest swath.

I would advise everyone on the East Coast to keep tabs on this system. That includes the North East.
Tropical Storm Ike (our next player) has a very favorable track as of now. He is riding under a westward building ridge that is actually being created as he moves west. When he enters our area, the ridge is forecast to be very strong that may actually turn him slightly SW. That track will keep him under Florida. But again, we must watch as S Florida will most likely be in his cone of uncertainty. One to watch down the road.
I think Josephine will become a fish spinner.

This is going to be a wild week. This activity should last another week or so and then things should start to get down to a more manageable level.

I will have a fresh update in the AM, hopefully not removing any good news I left you with tonight!

Tropical Storm Hanna A Bit Stronger!

Hi everybody. Just a quick update.

Hanna is still holding her own and the forecast thinking has not changed. The forecast still keeps Hanna off the coast BUT all interests in Florida need to monitor her track very carefully as only a small deviation to the west could bring the center closer then we would like. Almost all models are showing the track towards the Carolinas/Georgia. We are nearing the critical time for the turn. At present, Hanna is drifting the the west. Please monitor the path carefully throughout the day.