Gustav is holding his own!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody! I hope you are enjoying your holiday weekend. Gustav is holding his own although there has been no change in intensity over the past several hours. This is certainly great news for those in the Gulf. Latest satellite images suggest that the structure of Gustav is becoming very ragged. The convection is also becoming asymmetrical in appearance.The eye is now displaced in the NE quadrant of the storm. Pressures are now rising within the system which is an indication of weakening. The track guidance is still the same but the system may hit a bit to the left of New Orleans which will put the biggest risk of storm surge in that area. In addition, the system is forecast to “stall” over the region as the steering currents collapse near or after landfall. Estimated winds are now 120 mph and this may actually be generous. The next recon fix will give us a better idea of the actual wind speed. Given the latest data, I am betting that further weakening has taken place.

Tropical storm Hanna remains to be a very fickle storm that is very problematic to forecast. The satellite structure looks very ragged and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 MPH.
Hanna is going to cross into a very complicated atmospheric pattern over the next several days. The upper level winds are going to be very hostile and could further weaken the system. Hanna is now resembling more of a sub-tropical system then a tropical storm. In addition, Hanna will be dealing with the outflow from Gustav. Late in the forecast period at day 5, some improvement in the atmospheric conditions could result in some strengthening.

Model guidance has been in pretty good agreement on a weakness developing the ridge that will allow for a NW track east of the Bahamas. This track will have to be watched closely on our coast as the track is quite close to the coast. This will have a lot to do with what condition the storm is at that point. There is some model spread that indicates a more westerly track into Florida and this model consensus cannot be ignored.
This is one to watch but no need to panic or worry but stay vigilant and be ready in case action needs to be taken!

Advertisements