We are tracking Tropical Storm Kyle in the Atlantic!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are tracking Tropical Storm Kyle in the Atlantic. Kyle appears to be gettinhg his act together as he moves to the n-ne. He is in an area that is demonstating some wind shear which is the main facter in keeping the system in check. The intensity forecast is somewhat probleatic as the system is going to enter an area with less wind shear in the coming days. That should allow Kyle to strengthen. Depending on the rate of intensification at that time, we will tghen have a better idea of what strength Kyle will be when he nears New England or the Canadian Maritimes. Kyle could be very well be a hurricane when he approaches these areas.

The model forecast is also a bit problematic in the far reaches of the forecast. Residents in the NE US need to pay close attention to the progress of Kyle. This is especially true for New England. It is not out of the question for New England to experience hurricane conditions.

Although Kyle should start to weaken once he gets north of the Gulf Stream, there is a good possibility that he will maintain hurricane strength as he nears the New England area.
We will have to closely moniter the track changes (if any) over the next few days.
Invest 94 is now over the Carolinas with wind gusts near hurricane force but with no closed circulation, it cannot be officially classified.

If you have friends, relatives in the NE, please advise them to keep a heads up on the weather this coming week.

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Hurricane Ike… The Final Farewell!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Soon, hurricane Ike will be little more then a memory…a memory that will linger on the minds of many for months to come. Structures that have endured years of storms and hurricanes succumbed to the raging fury that Ike had to offer. Probably the most amazing analogy is that Ike was only a category 2 storm. The damage scene looks more like that from a bomb explosion then a cat 2 cyclone. One of the reason for this was the tremendous storm surge. The Gulf of Mexico has so many low lying areas that are at or barely above sea level, this combined with the deep Gulf waters creates a recipe for disaster whenever a storm looms. Had Ike taken a different path and passed over one or more of the warm eddies in the Gulf, the scene would of been much worse. In fact, it would of been catastrophic and beyond.

One of the things that saved Galveston Island from even worse damage was a 17 foot seawall that was built in 1900 after the great Galveston Hurricane that killed thousands of people, many due to drowning.

This is just a grim reminder that as our climate changes, our storms are becoming more intense with weather events constantly creating new records.

Here in Florida, we will often talk about how we barely missed the big one. A near miss it was indeed. As you recall, the original forecast called for Hanna to leave a weakness in the ridge and allow Ike to penetrate through the weakness and move dangerously close to East Central Florida as a potential cat 4 hurricane. As Hanna began to move away, the models started to pick up on the ridge beginning to fill in. At first, it was only shown on a few models but as time went on, the analogy began to spread throughout the model suite. As I tracked the model progress, I started to breathe a little easier each day. To make the forecasting more difficult, I had to try to safely schedule a flight for my wife to Massachusetts between all the mess so she could attend a funeral ceremony for her Dad that just passed away.

Besides tracking the back to back hurricanes in 2004, this was the most nerve breaking 3 week period I have ever had as a tracker. You can ask any tracker out there and they will tell you the same thing….storm tracking is a job you love to hate.

Our prayers are extended to all the people who have lost life or property in the wake of Hurricane Ike.

Hanna Heads Up The East Coast…Warnings issued

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Our friends in the Mid Atlantic region are going to experience a rare tropical storm this week end. Tropical Storm warnigs have been issued all the way up to Rhode Island. Here is the full Hurricane Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1203 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

..TROPICAL STORM HANNA STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING…

AT 11 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND…INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR
AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND…INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…ALL OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY…THE TIDAL POTOMAC…WASHINGTON D.C…DELAWARE
BAY…NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA…
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.  HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF WATCH HILL
RHODE ISLAND TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK
ISLAND…MARTHA’S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES… 95 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 140 MILES…230 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ON SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
MOVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL…IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER LANDFALL AND HANNA SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES…
415 KM MAINLY TI THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 978 MB…28.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

 

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
7 INCHES FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA…NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-070415-
/O.UPG.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.TR.W.0001.080906T0403Z-000000T0000Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1203 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

..NEW INFORMATION…

UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

..AREAS AFFECTED…

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS…

LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY…LONG
ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY…NEW YORK
HARBOR…PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS…SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM
JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY…MORICHES INLET NY TO
MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM…FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES
INLET NY OUT 20 NM…SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT
20 NM.

..WATCHES/WARNINGS…

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE
BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD PREPARE QUICKLY FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS.

..WINDS…

AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND…HANNA
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT…MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS
FORECAST…THESE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTER AND
EASTERN WATERS.

..TORNADOES…

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
TRACK OF HANNA…WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE WATERS NEAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

..NEXT UPDATE…

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM THIS MORNING.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hurricane Ike Update 9:00 AM

Your Latest Florida Weather Information…
Hi everybody. We are still tracking Hanna. Hanna is not a concern to us for the most part at this time.She will pass well to our East and is now forecast to be a major player in New England.

We are generally going to focus on Ike. Ike is now nearing cat 5 strength. He is forecast to be in the same position as Hanna, in fact farther east, coming through the Bahamas. The track right now is aimed at our area as a major cat4 hurricane. By Monday if this track holds, we will see warnings and evacuations most likely begin. The models are in a little too much agreement to suit me right now. By Tuesday, the storm will abe just off the coast in some shaop or form.

On the current track, I urge all to have a plan and plan on executing it by Monday. The best case scenerio we can look for is for Ike to follow a similar track to Hanna and make a turn, but I dont know how likely that is at the moment. The GFS shows Ike recurving well offshore from Florida and the ECMWF has Ike making landfall in SE Central Florida. There is a wide swing on the models so we must watch this system with care.
In short, the decision day and possibly the action day will be Monday. Tuesday the system will either be passing just to our east or will be approaching the northern Bahamas toward our area.

Hanna 5 AM update!

 
Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Hanna continues to meander near Haiti. She is now drifting towards the north at 2 mph. A gradual n or NW component is expected to resume soon. The global models have again shifted east and the NHC track is on the far west side of the model suite. If this trend continues, I would expect another eastward swift within the next 2 advisories. these shifts, if they happen, would be enough to keep the highest winds out of our area. In fact, this would then be a Carolina/Northeast Hurricane or Tropical Storm! If the track follows more to the east as the models currently have it, the system would run right through Long Island, Conn and Mass. We will have to see if the official forecast follows suit with this model trend. That is my thinking right now.

On the current track, the cyclone will be about 120 miles to our east of us at the closest swath.The eastward movement last night is the thing that shifted the tracks back to the east. The current local forecast still has “tropical storm conditions possible” in the forecast for Thursday night. The current wind gusts expected on the current path are 35 mph. We will have to see if this forecast holds.

It is worth noting that the current forecast track is produced from drop sound measurements in and around Hanna using the Gulf stream IV Jet aircraft. This information usually results in very accurate model runs so confidence is a bit higher on the new forecast track.

Hanna Track Slightly Shifted

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. As I previously forecasted, the track has indeed shifted a bit to the east. This is what we want to see. The models are indicating that Hanna will begin her move very soon. I am sure everybody is holding their breath with this storm , I know I am. The new track will take Hanna as far north as Massachusetts with tropical storm force winds. She is forecast to be an 80 mph hurricane as she passes to our east (hopefully).

Hanna has a very ragged appearance on satellite and although the intensity is still at 65 mph, she may actually be weaker. A recon is scheduled to fly in tonight and we may find a weaker storm then currently advertised. This storm could very well be an entire East Coast event. I don’t know how much confidence I have in the new track as of yet. I have yet to see a track stick any longer then one advisory with this cyclone. We will have to look at the new model runs when they come out. Info from the last recon not long ago will be inputted and we will see what we come up with. Hopefully by then Hanna will start moving so we can get her out of here. We are currently on the far left side of the cone but remember, any slight deviation can cause large differences in how we will experience Hanna. If she follows the current track, she will be approximately 140 miles off our coast at her closest swath.

I would advise everyone on the East Coast to keep tabs on this system. That includes the North East.
Tropical Storm Ike (our next player) has a very favorable track as of now. He is riding under a westward building ridge that is actually being created as he moves west. When he enters our area, the ridge is forecast to be very strong that may actually turn him slightly SW. That track will keep him under Florida. But again, we must watch as S Florida will most likely be in his cone of uncertainty. One to watch down the road.
I think Josephine will become a fish spinner.

This is going to be a wild week. This activity should last another week or so and then things should start to get down to a more manageable level.

I will have a fresh update in the AM, hopefully not removing any good news I left you with tonight!

Hurricane Hanna Forecast To Threaten East Central Florida!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Hanna is getting more and more likely to be a player in our weather on Thursday, especially from afternoon on. On the current forecast track, the highest winds will stay offshore but….any deviation in the track will bring much stronger winds and heavier rains to our region. There are some important things to remember to avoid a repeat of all the stranded people in Fay. You may leave to work with not so bad weather. If the system turns while you are out, you risk loosing your car or worse if hurricane conditions come upon us. Please, I want everybody to be safe during this potential dangerous weather event. Please remember that a landfall in our area cannot be ruled out but in all likihood, the system will parallel the coast offshore.

If you live in an area where streets and yards flooded during Fay, you need to exercise special caution as the lakes and canals are still high from the recent rains. Streets will flood rapidly…in just a matter of 15 minutes in some cases if the storm angles in close enough.

With all this in mind, it is still too early to tell the exact angle Hanna will came in on. That will not be known until she starts her much awaited turn. It is forecast to begin very soon.
Even though Hanna is just a tropical storm, once she gets into the warm Gulf Stream, intensification is possible and likely. remember, we are terrible on forecasting storm intensities and with today’s environment, storms take on a new identity real fast…sometimes In  a matter of hours.
In short….simply be prepared for possible tropical storm/hurricane conditions on Thursday. If there are ANY track changes or model changes I will get them out to as fast as possible.

The Governor has already put Florida under a state of emergency so aid can get to us fast if it is needed. When the governor asks people to stay off the roads, please do so. When I had the scanner on during Fay, the police were having a hard time rescuing motorists trapped in their cars. The only people who should be on the roads during tropical storm or hurricane warning periods are necessary emergency personnel.
Be safe and be ready.