Hurricane Ike. Update and Radar!

Hi everybody. I am trying to let everybody get a handle on their email so I slowed down the updates after we were out of the cone.

Ike is now headed towards the North Western Gulf of Mexico. Ike is still only at 100 mph or a cat 2 hurricane at the present but some intensification is forecast before landfall. Ike is expected to make landfall on the Texas Coast as a major hurricane.

Ike has been struggling a bit since he is in an area of cooler water temperatures. He has fortunatly missed several of the very warm eddies that often cause storms to go into rapid intensification mode. In addition, his windfiels has expanded tremendously the past 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend all the way out to 115 miles away from the center. Generally speaking, when the windfield expands that much, it is much harder for a system to develop rapidly.

The cyclone is moving west-northwest around the periphery of a high pressure ridge. Ike is expected to gently recurve as he approaches the coast of Texas and into the Central US.
The models are very tightly clustered and Ike is most likely going to hit near Galveston. It should be noted that because of the tremendous wind field, storm surge flooding will occur well in advance of the center, more in advance then is typical of storms of this sixe.

We will be tracking Ike as he approaches landfall.
I have activated the Houston and New Orleans Digital Doppler Radar sites.You can find them HERE. Please bookmark them and you can view the system as it makes landfall. You can view the latest track and windfield here. You can view the latest watches and warnings graphic here.


Gustav and Hanna 11 PM Advisory

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Throughout the past several hours, Gustav has been getting better organized and the pressures have been falling. As of the latest recon pass, Gustav has maintained a 115 mph status. This is indeed good news although Gustav still has the potential to intensify before landfall and he is carrying a very dangerous storm surge. Exactly where he makes landfall can have a marked difference on the destruction potential of the surge. One word to note is that Gustav has an expanded area of hurricane force winds. That means that the area he hits will have a larger impact in the sense of how many square miles are affected.

The model consensus is the same as it has been over the course of the week. There are no changes on the track. The track could of been drawn with a straight edge!

Tropical storm Hanna is the storm we need to watch very carefully still. There is still some spread in the models but the general thinking is that Hanna will soon be blocked by a high pressure ridge and will”meander” for a time near the Central BahamasAfter about 48 hours, a weakness is forecast to open in the ridge and allow Hanna to move NW through the ridge. This track is still forecast to be east of the Bahamas. This will take Hanna into the Carolinas. It is noteable, however, that the UKMET shows Hanna Taking a southern route near Cuba just under South Florida. This model is an outliner but cannot be totally ignored.

Hanna has strengthened slightly and is now at 50 mph. The shear is expected to increase for the next couple of days so we could again see a decrease in intensity. Thereafter, some slight strengthening is forecast as upper air conditions may become more favorable for development. You can view the updated tracks here. Bear in mind that due to a server outage with a software vender, the model runs are not currently available. I still have access to them for my use but due to copywrite, I am not able to display the ones that I have access to. We are sorry for the inconvenience. You can view some New Orleans Traffic Cams here.

Gustav is holding his own!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody! I hope you are enjoying your holiday weekend. Gustav is holding his own although there has been no change in intensity over the past several hours. This is certainly great news for those in the Gulf. Latest satellite images suggest that the structure of Gustav is becoming very ragged. The convection is also becoming asymmetrical in appearance.The eye is now displaced in the NE quadrant of the storm. Pressures are now rising within the system which is an indication of weakening. The track guidance is still the same but the system may hit a bit to the left of New Orleans which will put the biggest risk of storm surge in that area. In addition, the system is forecast to “stall” over the region as the steering currents collapse near or after landfall. Estimated winds are now 120 mph and this may actually be generous. The next recon fix will give us a better idea of the actual wind speed. Given the latest data, I am betting that further weakening has taken place.

Tropical storm Hanna remains to be a very fickle storm that is very problematic to forecast. The satellite structure looks very ragged and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 MPH.
Hanna is going to cross into a very complicated atmospheric pattern over the next several days. The upper level winds are going to be very hostile and could further weaken the system. Hanna is now resembling more of a sub-tropical system then a tropical storm. In addition, Hanna will be dealing with the outflow from Gustav. Late in the forecast period at day 5, some improvement in the atmospheric conditions could result in some strengthening.

Model guidance has been in pretty good agreement on a weakness developing the ridge that will allow for a NW track east of the Bahamas. This track will have to be watched closely on our coast as the track is quite close to the coast. This will have a lot to do with what condition the storm is at that point. There is some model spread that indicates a more westerly track into Florida and this model consensus cannot be ignored.
This is one to watch but no need to panic or worry but stay vigilant and be ready in case action needs to be taken!