Gustav and Hanna 11 PM Advisory

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Throughout the past several hours, Gustav has been getting better organized and the pressures have been falling. As of the latest recon pass, Gustav has maintained a 115 mph status. This is indeed good news although Gustav still has the potential to intensify before landfall and he is carrying a very dangerous storm surge. Exactly where he makes landfall can have a marked difference on the destruction potential of the surge. One word to note is that Gustav has an expanded area of hurricane force winds. That means that the area he hits will have a larger impact in the sense of how many square miles are affected.

The model consensus is the same as it has been over the course of the week. There are no changes on the track. The track could of been drawn with a straight edge!

Tropical storm Hanna is the storm we need to watch very carefully still. There is still some spread in the models but the general thinking is that Hanna will soon be blocked by a high pressure ridge and will”meander” for a time near the Central BahamasAfter about 48 hours, a weakness is forecast to open in the ridge and allow Hanna to move NW through the ridge. This track is still forecast to be east of the Bahamas. This will take Hanna into the Carolinas. It is noteable, however, that the UKMET shows Hanna Taking a southern route near Cuba just under South Florida. This model is an outliner but cannot be totally ignored.

Hanna has strengthened slightly and is now at 50 mph. The shear is expected to increase for the next couple of days so we could again see a decrease in intensity. Thereafter, some slight strengthening is forecast as upper air conditions may become more favorable for development. You can view the updated tracks here. Bear in mind that due to a server outage with a software vender, the model runs are not currently available. I still have access to them for my use but due to copywrite, I am not able to display the ones that I have access to. We are sorry for the inconvenience. You can view some New Orleans Traffic Cams here.

Hanna Looking Really Ragged!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. One look at Hanna will reveal a system that is barely holding on. She is being torn apart by the upper level winds and the outer circulation of Gustav. I have not seen the 2 Pm stats yet but I would not be surprised to see a weaker system very soon. You can clearly see the extreme shear going on in this loop. I am patiently awaiting the 2 PM recon info to see if this verifies.

I just received the 2 PM and again, Hanna has weakened down to 45 MPH. The model thinking is still about the same. Hanna is forecast to go West, then SW then NW through a break in the subtropical ridge. If this track holds true, Hanna will parallel the coast far enough away to keep the strongest winds and weather to our east. I stress again that the satellite images of Hanna are VERY ragged and I am almost surprised that she is still at TS status. You can view the latest track here. I cannot get the model tracks as the server that connects with my software is down at the moment.

In short, we have good news on all fronts at the moment. Remember, things can turn around fast so still stay vigilant.

Gustav is holding his own!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody! I hope you are enjoying your holiday weekend. Gustav is holding his own although there has been no change in intensity over the past several hours. This is certainly great news for those in the Gulf. Latest satellite images suggest that the structure of Gustav is becoming very ragged. The convection is also becoming asymmetrical in appearance.The eye is now displaced in the NE quadrant of the storm. Pressures are now rising within the system which is an indication of weakening. The track guidance is still the same but the system may hit a bit to the left of New Orleans which will put the biggest risk of storm surge in that area. In addition, the system is forecast to “stall” over the region as the steering currents collapse near or after landfall. Estimated winds are now 120 mph and this may actually be generous. The next recon fix will give us a better idea of the actual wind speed. Given the latest data, I am betting that further weakening has taken place.

Tropical storm Hanna remains to be a very fickle storm that is very problematic to forecast. The satellite structure looks very ragged and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 MPH.
Hanna is going to cross into a very complicated atmospheric pattern over the next several days. The upper level winds are going to be very hostile and could further weaken the system. Hanna is now resembling more of a sub-tropical system then a tropical storm. In addition, Hanna will be dealing with the outflow from Gustav. Late in the forecast period at day 5, some improvement in the atmospheric conditions could result in some strengthening.

Model guidance has been in pretty good agreement on a weakness developing the ridge that will allow for a NW track east of the Bahamas. This track will have to be watched closely on our coast as the track is quite close to the coast. This will have a lot to do with what condition the storm is at that point. There is some model spread that indicates a more westerly track into Florida and this model consensus cannot be ignored.
This is one to watch but no need to panic or worry but stay vigilant and be ready in case action needs to be taken!

Hurricane Gustav is now a strong cat 4 storm!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Gustav is now a strong cat 4 storm and will probably be a cat 5 at some point in it’s life. It is expected to weaken some as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Winds are now 145 mph and the track remains the same.
Hanna is undergoing changes today as she appears to be looking more like a sub-tropical storm rather then a tropical storm. The main difference is that a sub-tropical system has a cool core while a tropical storm has a warm core. They can still be quite strong. A subtropical storm can be compared to a Nor’easter up north.
The model spread on Hanna has become quite large with models looking like a tangled mess of wires. The new track is a best guess scenario and has her headed for Florida at the end of the forecast period. I want to caution that this track may or not hold in place so keep checking back the next few days.WE will be watching this storm quite a long time so it will be a wait and see. The track is uncannily similar to Jeanne in 2004.
Some of the models are forecasting a north turn very close to us towards the Carolinas as the ridge begins to weaken. The NHC basically said that forecasting this storm is like ‘Throwing darts”.Don’t panic because of the new forecast track but rather just stay tuned in. It would be prudent to check your hurricane supplies. It would be an excellent idea to fuel up all your vehicles and gas cans before Gustav hits the rigs in the Gulf and prices soar.
One of the biggest concerns of even a close brush with Hanna is the flood potential. We will keep you posted.

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES.  THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.
 
FORECASTER KNABB