Hurricane Ike 11 PM Update

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Ike has again shifted his course to the south and west. In fact, models are showing even more of a westerly trend and in all likely, the track will shift yet again . Ike may actually skirt the Island of Cuba just to the north before entering the Gulf. I hate to say it, but this may be a major storm in the Gulf of Mexico. If this trend continues, even the Keys may be spared the entire wrath of Ike. If you live in the Keys and you are told to evacuate, please do so for your own safety.

Ike continues to ride under a strong Bermuda high that is the steering force behind him. The shear that has been holding down the wind speed is soon going to abate. Once this happens, Ike will most likely intensify, possibly going into RTM (rapid intensification mode).

The models are in very good agreement on the future track of Ike. I still urge everyone in Florida, The Bahamas, Cuba and the Gulf to watch this very dangerous hurricane carefully.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for the SE Bahamas.
Ike remains a dangerous cat 3 hurricane at 115 mph.


Gustav is holding his own!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody! I hope you are enjoying your holiday weekend. Gustav is holding his own although there has been no change in intensity over the past several hours. This is certainly great news for those in the Gulf. Latest satellite images suggest that the structure of Gustav is becoming very ragged. The convection is also becoming asymmetrical in appearance.The eye is now displaced in the NE quadrant of the storm. Pressures are now rising within the system which is an indication of weakening. The track guidance is still the same but the system may hit a bit to the left of New Orleans which will put the biggest risk of storm surge in that area. In addition, the system is forecast to “stall” over the region as the steering currents collapse near or after landfall. Estimated winds are now 120 mph and this may actually be generous. The next recon fix will give us a better idea of the actual wind speed. Given the latest data, I am betting that further weakening has taken place.

Tropical storm Hanna remains to be a very fickle storm that is very problematic to forecast. The satellite structure looks very ragged and the initial intensity has been reduced to 50 MPH.
Hanna is going to cross into a very complicated atmospheric pattern over the next several days. The upper level winds are going to be very hostile and could further weaken the system. Hanna is now resembling more of a sub-tropical system then a tropical storm. In addition, Hanna will be dealing with the outflow from Gustav. Late in the forecast period at day 5, some improvement in the atmospheric conditions could result in some strengthening.

Model guidance has been in pretty good agreement on a weakness developing the ridge that will allow for a NW track east of the Bahamas. This track will have to be watched closely on our coast as the track is quite close to the coast. This will have a lot to do with what condition the storm is at that point. There is some model spread that indicates a more westerly track into Florida and this model consensus cannot be ignored.
This is one to watch but no need to panic or worry but stay vigilant and be ready in case action needs to be taken!

Hurricane Gustav is now a strong cat 4 storm!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Gustav is now a strong cat 4 storm and will probably be a cat 5 at some point in it’s life. It is expected to weaken some as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Winds are now 145 mph and the track remains the same.
Hanna is undergoing changes today as she appears to be looking more like a sub-tropical storm rather then a tropical storm. The main difference is that a sub-tropical system has a cool core while a tropical storm has a warm core. They can still be quite strong. A subtropical storm can be compared to a Nor’easter up north.
The model spread on Hanna has become quite large with models looking like a tangled mess of wires. The new track is a best guess scenario and has her headed for Florida at the end of the forecast period. I want to caution that this track may or not hold in place so keep checking back the next few days.WE will be watching this storm quite a long time so it will be a wait and see. The track is uncannily similar to Jeanne in 2004.
Some of the models are forecasting a north turn very close to us towards the Carolinas as the ridge begins to weaken. The NHC basically said that forecasting this storm is like ‘Throwing darts”.Don’t panic because of the new forecast track but rather just stay tuned in. It would be prudent to check your hurricane supplies. It would be an excellent idea to fuel up all your vehicles and gas cans before Gustav hits the rigs in the Gulf and prices soar.
One of the biggest concerns of even a close brush with Hanna is the flood potential. We will keep you posted.