Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are now tracking TS Paloma. Currently, satellite imagery is showing incresed organization and Paloma is expected to become a hurricane. Paloma is currentlt in an area of very light wind shear and warm oceanic temperatures. Significant strengthening is possible with rapid intensification a possability. Most of the models show Paloma rotating around a low level ridge which should kick the system NE across Cuba and the Bahamas, possibly as a major hurricane. Interests in this region should moniter the storm carefully. You can get the latest tracks and models at Hurricane Central. I will have a full update this afternoon.

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. The first real cold front of the season will be embarking on East Central Florida this weekend. Temperatures will dip into the 50’s, possibly the lower 50’s on Sunday night. This cool weather will last into next week.
 
The next 2 days will be extremly unsettled with a strong high pressure ridge banding with a low pressure center. This will bring showery weather to our area tonight. Stating tomoorrow, Rain will become heavier and more widespread as the low moves into the Gulf and merges with a well developed storm in the Plains. The  wind flow will generate a classic “overrunning” rain event that is characterized by widespread and steady rainfall. The heaviest rain will occur Friday and Friday night with the chances around 80%.
Saturday, a strong jet coming down from the Plains will help push the rain out of our area and usher in the cold front.
Sunday will be gorgeous with temps barely making 80 and lows in the 50’s. Once we get through the rain, get ready for some great fall weather!
Follow the radar action right here as the rains begin to fall. Tomorrow, I may activate the Digital Doppler loops as the system evolves. I will send a notification with the link when it is actvated.

Florida Weather Information , Invest 93

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are now watching invest 93 with care. Invest 93 is now a broad area of cloudiness that is beginning to show some signs of development. Right now, the upper level winds are not really favorable for development but that is expected to change over the next couple of days. A depression could form in another day or two. Initially, the model runs were keeping the invest well to our south but the new models are showing more of a course east of the Bahamas. Because of this model shift, it is definitely worth watching. Here are the latest model runs. A recon will investigate the area tomorrow, if necessary.
Starting Sunday, the rain chances for East Central Florida are going to be on the increase for the next several days with the rain chances going up to 50%.
I will keep you posted with the recon information if a plane is indeed dispatched to the system.

Hurricane Ike… The Final Farewell!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Soon, hurricane Ike will be little more then a memory…a memory that will linger on the minds of many for months to come. Structures that have endured years of storms and hurricanes succumbed to the raging fury that Ike had to offer. Probably the most amazing analogy is that Ike was only a category 2 storm. The damage scene looks more like that from a bomb explosion then a cat 2 cyclone. One of the reason for this was the tremendous storm surge. The Gulf of Mexico has so many low lying areas that are at or barely above sea level, this combined with the deep Gulf waters creates a recipe for disaster whenever a storm looms. Had Ike taken a different path and passed over one or more of the warm eddies in the Gulf, the scene would of been much worse. In fact, it would of been catastrophic and beyond.

One of the things that saved Galveston Island from even worse damage was a 17 foot seawall that was built in 1900 after the great Galveston Hurricane that killed thousands of people, many due to drowning.

This is just a grim reminder that as our climate changes, our storms are becoming more intense with weather events constantly creating new records.

Here in Florida, we will often talk about how we barely missed the big one. A near miss it was indeed. As you recall, the original forecast called for Hanna to leave a weakness in the ridge and allow Ike to penetrate through the weakness and move dangerously close to East Central Florida as a potential cat 4 hurricane. As Hanna began to move away, the models started to pick up on the ridge beginning to fill in. At first, it was only shown on a few models but as time went on, the analogy began to spread throughout the model suite. As I tracked the model progress, I started to breathe a little easier each day. To make the forecasting more difficult, I had to try to safely schedule a flight for my wife to Massachusetts between all the mess so she could attend a funeral ceremony for her Dad that just passed away.

Besides tracking the back to back hurricanes in 2004, this was the most nerve breaking 3 week period I have ever had as a tracker. You can ask any tracker out there and they will tell you the same thing….storm tracking is a job you love to hate.

Our prayers are extended to all the people who have lost life or property in the wake of Hurricane Ike.

Hurricane Ike…Still affecting the Keys

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Hurricane Ike battered Key West last night with very heavy rains and winds of 50 mph. Street flooding and power outages were scattered throughout the night. Ike is currently moving NW but a w-nw motion is expected later today. The track of Ike has put the state of Texas on alert as possibly the next target. At 11 AM, Ike was moving little and gaining in both strength and size.

He is currently drifting in a general w-nw direction at about 3 mph. We never like to see storms stall. Ike has become a large cyclone with hurricane force winds extending to 80 miles and tropical storm force winds out to 205 miles. Ike is now a 90 mph hurricane. Ike is expected to pass over several very warm eddies in the Gulf. This could lead to significant strengthening in the coming days. There is strong confidence in the models for the next 3 days, thereafter the models spread out a bit but Ike should should be on the Texas coast in about 3 days.

We will be following that landfall with Digital Doppler as he approaches the region.
The tropical storm warning is still in effect from just West of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.
Gusty winds will still impact the Keys today but will subside as the day progresses.
Visitor will be able to start entering the Keys again on Thursday. You should check your reservations before going on your trip.

Hurricane Ike 5 PM Update

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Hurricane Ike is hugging the south coast of Cuba. As expected, the core of Ike has been disrubted. This has weakened Ike to a 80 mph hurricane and further weakeing is possible. Once in the Gulf, he is expected to increase in intensity as he makes his way to the Gulf Coast.

Models are in uninanimous agreement on the forecast track. Tropical Storm warnings and a hurricane watch remain up for the Florida Keys.

Key West Digital Doppler Now Activated

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. I have just actiovated my Key West Digital Doppler for Ike. Once the system gets to around Central Cube we will be able to moniter him live on radar. Here is the link… http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar_2.html . Bookmark this link as it will be used until we switch to the next radar site depending on the forecast track.