Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. It is quite rare to be tracking a hurricane in the tropics given the time of year. Rare as it it is, wea are tracking a hurricane that is still getting stronger with dropping pressures. The models are in decent agreement that the system will drift north over the next 24 hours. The cyclone will then turn more to the northeast and cross Cuba as a hurricane, possibly major. The sytem will then cross the Central Bahamas and weaken. This is the scenerio that is most likely. A couple of models actually take the system west where weakenning would occur. This is not the most likely prospect, however. Most of the models are showing a well organized cyclone when Paloma crosses Cuba. That is not good news for the island nation as they have been slammed with storm after storm this season. The Bahamas have had their share of storms also.
Paloma has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours by 34 knots. The current forecast calls for this rapid intensification mode to end in about 24 hours. Paloma has a very impressive outflow pattern and is in an area of low verticle shear. After crossing Cuba, the shear is expected to increase and that combined with the passage over Cuba will help to weaken the system. That will be good news for the Central Bahmas as Paloma enters THe Atlantic.
You can view the latest track and model graphics at


Your Latest Florida Weather Information

As of 5 PM we are now tracking Tropical Depression 17. Depression 17 is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm as it recurves back to the NE. In fact, some of the models are forecasting a major hurricane before it crosses Cuba. Conditions in this area are extremly favorable for development. Near the end of the forecast period, verticle shear is expected to increase and this will bring about an abrupt weakening of the system at day 5. Late season storms are sometimes very slow moving so the forecast guidance may be too quick in taking the system out of the Caribbean.

Tropical storm Hanna is struggling to maintain TS status!

Hi everybody. Tropical storm Hanna is struggling to maintain TS status. In fact, the cyclone is beginning to look more like a subtropical system.

The new model guidance is taking the system w NW with a decrease in forward speed. A weakness in the ridge is forecast at that point just east of the Bahamas. This weakness in the ridge is expected to allow the cyclone to break through and take a more northerly course. This is going to be one of those wait for the turn storms. This turn is being shown by most of the global models.

Gustav has weakenned slightly after crossing Cuba. The eye has filled in and a recon is flying out to the system to get an exact fix on the intensity. The model guidance is still the same with a beeline to the Louisiana coast.

I will have more on the track of Hanna in the morning as we see if the models still are showing the same general motion and track.