Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are now tracking TS Paloma. Currently, satellite imagery is showing incresed organization and Paloma is expected to become a hurricane. Paloma is currentlt in an area of very light wind shear and warm oceanic temperatures. Significant strengthening is possible with rapid intensification a possability. Most of the models show Paloma rotating around a low level ridge which should kick the system NE across Cuba and the Bahamas, possibly as a major hurricane. Interests in this region should moniter the storm carefully. You can get the latest tracks and models at Hurricane Central. I will have a full update this afternoon.

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We are tracking Tropical Storm Kyle in the Atlantic!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are tracking Tropical Storm Kyle in the Atlantic. Kyle appears to be gettinhg his act together as he moves to the n-ne. He is in an area that is demonstating some wind shear which is the main facter in keeping the system in check. The intensity forecast is somewhat probleatic as the system is going to enter an area with less wind shear in the coming days. That should allow Kyle to strengthen. Depending on the rate of intensification at that time, we will tghen have a better idea of what strength Kyle will be when he nears New England or the Canadian Maritimes. Kyle could be very well be a hurricane when he approaches these areas.

The model forecast is also a bit problematic in the far reaches of the forecast. Residents in the NE US need to pay close attention to the progress of Kyle. This is especially true for New England. It is not out of the question for New England to experience hurricane conditions.

Although Kyle should start to weaken once he gets north of the Gulf Stream, there is a good possibility that he will maintain hurricane strength as he nears the New England area.
We will have to closely moniter the track changes (if any) over the next few days.
Invest 94 is now over the Carolinas with wind gusts near hurricane force but with no closed circulation, it cannot be officially classified.

If you have friends, relatives in the NE, please advise them to keep a heads up on the weather this coming week.

Hanna Heads Up The East Coast…Warnings issued

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Our friends in the Mid Atlantic region are going to experience a rare tropical storm this week end. Tropical Storm warnigs have been issued all the way up to Rhode Island. Here is the full Hurricane Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1203 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

..TROPICAL STORM HANNA STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING…

AT 11 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND…INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR
AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND…INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…ALL OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY…THE TIDAL POTOMAC…WASHINGTON D.C…DELAWARE
BAY…NEW YORK HARBOR AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA…
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.  HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF WATCH HILL
RHODE ISLAND TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK
ISLAND…MARTHA’S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES… 95 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ABOUT 140 MILES…230 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ON SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
MOVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL…IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER LANDFALL AND HANNA SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES…
415 KM MAINLY TI THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 978 MB…28.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.

 

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
7 INCHES FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA…NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-070415-
/O.UPG.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.TR.W.0001.080906T0403Z-000000T0000Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1203 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…

..NEW INFORMATION…

UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

..AREAS AFFECTED…

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS…

LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY…LONG
ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY…NEW YORK
HARBOR…PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS…SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM
JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY…MORICHES INLET NY TO
MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM…FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES
INLET NY OUT 20 NM…SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT
20 NM.

..WATCHES/WARNINGS…

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE IS TO THE
BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD PREPARE QUICKLY FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS.

..WINDS…

AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND…HANNA
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT…MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. IF THE STORM MOVES AS
FORECAST…THESE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTER AND
EASTERN WATERS.

..TORNADOES…

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
TRACK OF HANNA…WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE WATERS NEAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

..NEXT UPDATE…

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM THIS MORNING.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Hanna 11 AM Update!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. At 11 AM, Hanna is now making her North turn and is moving at 6 mph. Hanna has not gotten any stronger, but she is getting larger and covering a larger area. The forecast track has again taken her more to the east, especially in the latter part of the forecast period. The new track keeps Hanna about 193 miles off our coast. The system is going to hit the east tip of South Carolina and then spend some time over water before hitting the Massachusetts coastal areas and the tip of Long Island. Residents in this area should be prepared for the potential of a relatively rare tropical storm/hurricane. The arrival time for us is a bit later, it will be at it’s closest point on Friday morning. You have a bit more time to watch.
It should be noted that the models have again shifted to the east. This may be reflected even more in the next couple of updates. It would not be unreasonable to assume that Hanna may stay as much as 230 miles off the coast. That is far enough for breathing room.

As of now, residents in coastal Carolina and coastal Mid Atlantic region should be preparing for a possible tropical event. 

Most of the computer models, the exception is the UKMET, is keeping Ike to our south. I should note that by around Monday, Ike is forecast to be a cat 3 hurricane in the SE Bahamas. How fast Hanna gets out will have an impact on how far north Ike travels. We will be in the cone of Ike as he passes to our south. It is not out of the question for Ike to clip S Florida with a landfall.

Beyond Ike, all the rest should be fish spinners and as the coming weeks pass, activity should start to wind down. We are now in the historic peak of the season. Soon, The Atlantic will start to revert to the Fall season and activity, especially that off of Africa, will decline. There after, our main concern will be storms that might develop closer to home or in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Hanna A Bit Stronger!

Hi everybody. Just a quick update.

Hanna is still holding her own and the forecast thinking has not changed. The forecast still keeps Hanna off the coast BUT all interests in Florida need to monitor her track very carefully as only a small deviation to the west could bring the center closer then we would like. Almost all models are showing the track towards the Carolinas/Georgia. We are nearing the critical time for the turn. At present, Hanna is drifting the the west. Please monitor the path carefully throughout the day.

New Information on Tropical Storm Hanna!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody! The latest information from the NWS shows that the models are in much better agreement on keeping Hanna well to our east. This is certainly the news I have been hoping for. In fact, we will be on the dry side of Hanna so a heavy rain event is not evident at this time. Rip currents and high surf will be a factor, however. In fact, the chance of showers will be at 20% or less on the current forecast track. I will have more updates later but I thought it prudent to share this bit of good news on this holiday weekend. As always, stay tuned in case of changes but go about your usual business this week end! Enjoy!

Hanna Looking Really Ragged!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. One look at Hanna will reveal a system that is barely holding on. She is being torn apart by the upper level winds and the outer circulation of Gustav. I have not seen the 2 Pm stats yet but I would not be surprised to see a weaker system very soon. You can clearly see the extreme shear going on in this loop. I am patiently awaiting the 2 PM recon info to see if this verifies.

I just received the 2 PM and again, Hanna has weakened down to 45 MPH. The model thinking is still about the same. Hanna is forecast to go West, then SW then NW through a break in the subtropical ridge. If this track holds true, Hanna will parallel the coast far enough away to keep the strongest winds and weather to our east. I stress again that the satellite images of Hanna are VERY ragged and I am almost surprised that she is still at TS status. You can view the latest track here. I cannot get the model tracks as the server that connects with my software is down at the moment.

In short, we have good news on all fronts at the moment. Remember, things can turn around fast so still stay vigilant.