Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. We are now tracking a rare cat 4 hurricane in November. Recent Recon has found that pressures have dropped to 943 MB. Since the clou tops have warmed a bit in the last pass, it is possible that the top winds have peaked. Another plane is scheduled in a few hours. Paloma is beginning an eyewall replacement cycle so there could be some fluctuations in strength over the next couple of hours. The cyclone should enter an area of incresing shear so a slow weakenning trend is likely to begin. Please note that that late in the forecast period, Paloma is expected to make a west backward loop, but as a much weaker system due to the strong wind shear that is expected.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Paloma is still reverring his engines. Paloma is still getting stronger and at a faster pace then before. Pressures are falling and the cyclone has a well defined cloud pattern with cold cloud tops. Winds are now at 115 MPH or cat 3 strength. Paloma will likely keep getting stronger until the cyclone hits the verticle wind shear sometime tomorrow. Models are starting to show a west turn at the end of the forecast. This is not a big concern to us as the wind shear, if this happens, will rip the system apart.
Regardless, The Cayman Islands and Central Cuba will be under the gun for an extremly dangerous storm. Visit Hurricane Central for all the updated Forecasts and Models. For the latest model runs ( I will updating these shortly) scroll down to the storm box and click “Models”.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. It is quite rare to be tracking a hurricane in the tropics given the time of year. Rare as it it is, wea are tracking a hurricane that is still getting stronger with dropping pressures. The models are in decent agreement that the system will drift north over the next 24 hours. The cyclone will then turn more to the northeast and cross Cuba as a hurricane, possibly major. The sytem will then cross the Central Bahamas and weaken. This is the scenerio that is most likely. A couple of models actually take the system west where weakenning would occur. This is not the most likely prospect, however. Most of the models are showing a well organized cyclone when Paloma crosses Cuba. That is not good news for the island nation as they have been slammed with storm after storm this season. The Bahamas have had their share of storms also.
Paloma has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours by 34 knots. The current forecast calls for this rapid intensification mode to end in about 24 hours. Paloma has a very impressive outflow pattern and is in an area of low verticle shear. After crossing Cuba, the shear is expected to increase and that combined with the passage over Cuba will help to weaken the system. That will be good news for the Central Bahmas as Paloma enters THe Atlantic.
You can view the latest track and model graphics at Storm2008.net.

Hurricane Ike… The Final Farewell!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Soon, hurricane Ike will be little more then a memory…a memory that will linger on the minds of many for months to come. Structures that have endured years of storms and hurricanes succumbed to the raging fury that Ike had to offer. Probably the most amazing analogy is that Ike was only a category 2 storm. The damage scene looks more like that from a bomb explosion then a cat 2 cyclone. One of the reason for this was the tremendous storm surge. The Gulf of Mexico has so many low lying areas that are at or barely above sea level, this combined with the deep Gulf waters creates a recipe for disaster whenever a storm looms. Had Ike taken a different path and passed over one or more of the warm eddies in the Gulf, the scene would of been much worse. In fact, it would of been catastrophic and beyond.

One of the things that saved Galveston Island from even worse damage was a 17 foot seawall that was built in 1900 after the great Galveston Hurricane that killed thousands of people, many due to drowning.

This is just a grim reminder that as our climate changes, our storms are becoming more intense with weather events constantly creating new records.

Here in Florida, we will often talk about how we barely missed the big one. A near miss it was indeed. As you recall, the original forecast called for Hanna to leave a weakness in the ridge and allow Ike to penetrate through the weakness and move dangerously close to East Central Florida as a potential cat 4 hurricane. As Hanna began to move away, the models started to pick up on the ridge beginning to fill in. At first, it was only shown on a few models but as time went on, the analogy began to spread throughout the model suite. As I tracked the model progress, I started to breathe a little easier each day. To make the forecasting more difficult, I had to try to safely schedule a flight for my wife to Massachusetts between all the mess so she could attend a funeral ceremony for her Dad that just passed away.

Besides tracking the back to back hurricanes in 2004, this was the most nerve breaking 3 week period I have ever had as a tracker. You can ask any tracker out there and they will tell you the same thing….storm tracking is a job you love to hate.

Our prayers are extended to all the people who have lost life or property in the wake of Hurricane Ike.

Hurricane Ike Approaching Texas!

Hi everybody. Hurricane Ike is slowly intensifying as it approaches the coast. Ike is now a 110 mph hurricane. The storm is massive and the storm surge is that of a much larger storm. The storm surge expected along the hurricane’s path is estimated to be 20 feet and will be up to 25 in some areas. keep in mind that the protective seawall around Galveston is only 17 feet high. Also keep in mind that many residents that were asked to leave did not. Although there will certainly be wind damage, the main problem with this storm is going to be the storm surge. It is a known fact that most hurricane related deaths are not from wind, they are from drowning in the surge.

Ike’s main feature is not his inner core. The system is an extremely large storm with a huge wind field. He lacks a well defined eye and that has helped him stay weaker. The area that Ike is going to hit has many refineries that pump out about one-fifth of our gasoline stock in the US.
A gauge located on Galveston Island indicates that the water has already risen 9 feet. The main surge will not be felt until just after landfall.

You can get a perfect view of the storm making landfall right here.
In addition to Ike, we are watching Invest 91 in the southern Bahamas. All indications are that this system is not likely to develop but it should be watched all the same. This area is actually a spin-off from Ike that was left behind. I will watch this area for any signs of development.

Hurricane Ike. Update and Radar!

Hi everybody. I am trying to let everybody get a handle on their email so I slowed down the updates after we were out of the cone.

Ike is now headed towards the North Western Gulf of Mexico. Ike is still only at 100 mph or a cat 2 hurricane at the present but some intensification is forecast before landfall. Ike is expected to make landfall on the Texas Coast as a major hurricane.

Ike has been struggling a bit since he is in an area of cooler water temperatures. He has fortunatly missed several of the very warm eddies that often cause storms to go into rapid intensification mode. In addition, his windfiels has expanded tremendously the past 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend all the way out to 115 miles away from the center. Generally speaking, when the windfield expands that much, it is much harder for a system to develop rapidly.

The cyclone is moving west-northwest around the periphery of a high pressure ridge. Ike is expected to gently recurve as he approaches the coast of Texas and into the Central US.
The models are very tightly clustered and Ike is most likely going to hit near Galveston. It should be noted that because of the tremendous wind field, storm surge flooding will occur well in advance of the center, more in advance then is typical of storms of this sixe.

We will be tracking Ike as he approaches landfall.
I have activated the Houston and New Orleans Digital Doppler Radar sites.You can find them HERE. Please bookmark them and you can view the system as it makes landfall. You can view the latest track and windfield here. You can view the latest watches and warnings graphic here.

Hurricane Ike…Still affecting the Keys

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Hurricane Ike battered Key West last night with very heavy rains and winds of 50 mph. Street flooding and power outages were scattered throughout the night. Ike is currently moving NW but a w-nw motion is expected later today. The track of Ike has put the state of Texas on alert as possibly the next target. At 11 AM, Ike was moving little and gaining in both strength and size.

He is currently drifting in a general w-nw direction at about 3 mph. We never like to see storms stall. Ike has become a large cyclone with hurricane force winds extending to 80 miles and tropical storm force winds out to 205 miles. Ike is now a 90 mph hurricane. Ike is expected to pass over several very warm eddies in the Gulf. This could lead to significant strengthening in the coming days. There is strong confidence in the models for the next 3 days, thereafter the models spread out a bit but Ike should should be on the Texas coast in about 3 days.

We will be following that landfall with Digital Doppler as he approaches the region.
The tropical storm warning is still in effect from just West of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.
Gusty winds will still impact the Keys today but will subside as the day progresses.
Visitor will be able to start entering the Keys again on Thursday. You should check your reservations before going on your trip.