Gustav and Hanna 11 PM Advisory

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Throughout the past several hours, Gustav has been getting better organized and the pressures have been falling. As of the latest recon pass, Gustav has maintained a 115 mph status. This is indeed good news although Gustav still has the potential to intensify before landfall and he is carrying a very dangerous storm surge. Exactly where he makes landfall can have a marked difference on the destruction potential of the surge. One word to note is that Gustav has an expanded area of hurricane force winds. That means that the area he hits will have a larger impact in the sense of how many square miles are affected.

The model consensus is the same as it has been over the course of the week. There are no changes on the track. The track could of been drawn with a straight edge!

Tropical storm Hanna is the storm we need to watch very carefully still. There is still some spread in the models but the general thinking is that Hanna will soon be blocked by a high pressure ridge and will”meander” for a time near the Central BahamasAfter about 48 hours, a weakness is forecast to open in the ridge and allow Hanna to move NW through the ridge. This track is still forecast to be east of the Bahamas. This will take Hanna into the Carolinas. It is noteable, however, that the UKMET shows Hanna Taking a southern route near Cuba just under South Florida. This model is an outliner but cannot be totally ignored.

Hanna has strengthened slightly and is now at 50 mph. The shear is expected to increase for the next couple of days so we could again see a decrease in intensity. Thereafter, some slight strengthening is forecast as upper air conditions may become more favorable for development. You can view the updated tracks here. Bear in mind that due to a server outage with a software vender, the model runs are not currently available. I still have access to them for my use but due to copywrite, I am not able to display the ones that I have access to. We are sorry for the inconvenience. You can view some New Orleans Traffic Cams here.


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