We are tracking Tropical Storm Kyle in the Atlantic!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are tracking Tropical Storm Kyle in the Atlantic. Kyle appears to be gettinhg his act together as he moves to the n-ne. He is in an area that is demonstating some wind shear which is the main facter in keeping the system in check. The intensity forecast is somewhat probleatic as the system is going to enter an area with less wind shear in the coming days. That should allow Kyle to strengthen. Depending on the rate of intensification at that time, we will tghen have a better idea of what strength Kyle will be when he nears New England or the Canadian Maritimes. Kyle could be very well be a hurricane when he approaches these areas.

The model forecast is also a bit problematic in the far reaches of the forecast. Residents in the NE US need to pay close attention to the progress of Kyle. This is especially true for New England. It is not out of the question for New England to experience hurricane conditions.

Although Kyle should start to weaken once he gets north of the Gulf Stream, there is a good possibility that he will maintain hurricane strength as he nears the New England area.
We will have to closely moniter the track changes (if any) over the next few days.
Invest 94 is now over the Carolinas with wind gusts near hurricane force but with no closed circulation, it cannot be officially classified.

If you have friends, relatives in the NE, please advise them to keep a heads up on the weather this coming week.

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information! Invest 93.

Hi everybody. A special tropical disturbance statement has been issued for Invest 93. Satellite images and bouy reports indicate that a tropical depression may be forming. The system is starting to take on “pre” banding features that indicate cyclonic turning. Areas in Puerto Rico, The Virgin Islands, Hispanolia and the US should moniter the progress of this system. The latest models are showing a more northerly motion at present which if it holds, would keep it well east of us and it looks like it could be a threat for the Mid Atlantic area.

An Air Force recon is on the way to investigate the system so I suspect the first advisory will be issued at 2 PM for Tropical Depression 11. I will keep you advised as I get new model data and recon data.

Latest models are here. I will have them updated by 12 as I still have to generate the new ones.

Florida Weather Information , Invest 93

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are now watching invest 93 with care. Invest 93 is now a broad area of cloudiness that is beginning to show some signs of development. Right now, the upper level winds are not really favorable for development but that is expected to change over the next couple of days. A depression could form in another day or two. Initially, the model runs were keeping the invest well to our south but the new models are showing more of a course east of the Bahamas. Because of this model shift, it is definitely worth watching. Here are the latest model runs. A recon will investigate the area tomorrow, if necessary.
Starting Sunday, the rain chances for East Central Florida are going to be on the increase for the next several days with the rain chances going up to 50%.
I will keep you posted with the recon information if a plane is indeed dispatched to the system.

Hurricane Ike… The Final Farewell!

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Soon, hurricane Ike will be little more then a memory…a memory that will linger on the minds of many for months to come. Structures that have endured years of storms and hurricanes succumbed to the raging fury that Ike had to offer. Probably the most amazing analogy is that Ike was only a category 2 storm. The damage scene looks more like that from a bomb explosion then a cat 2 cyclone. One of the reason for this was the tremendous storm surge. The Gulf of Mexico has so many low lying areas that are at or barely above sea level, this combined with the deep Gulf waters creates a recipe for disaster whenever a storm looms. Had Ike taken a different path and passed over one or more of the warm eddies in the Gulf, the scene would of been much worse. In fact, it would of been catastrophic and beyond.

One of the things that saved Galveston Island from even worse damage was a 17 foot seawall that was built in 1900 after the great Galveston Hurricane that killed thousands of people, many due to drowning.

This is just a grim reminder that as our climate changes, our storms are becoming more intense with weather events constantly creating new records.

Here in Florida, we will often talk about how we barely missed the big one. A near miss it was indeed. As you recall, the original forecast called for Hanna to leave a weakness in the ridge and allow Ike to penetrate through the weakness and move dangerously close to East Central Florida as a potential cat 4 hurricane. As Hanna began to move away, the models started to pick up on the ridge beginning to fill in. At first, it was only shown on a few models but as time went on, the analogy began to spread throughout the model suite. As I tracked the model progress, I started to breathe a little easier each day. To make the forecasting more difficult, I had to try to safely schedule a flight for my wife to Massachusetts between all the mess so she could attend a funeral ceremony for her Dad that just passed away.

Besides tracking the back to back hurricanes in 2004, this was the most nerve breaking 3 week period I have ever had as a tracker. You can ask any tracker out there and they will tell you the same thing….storm tracking is a job you love to hate.

Our prayers are extended to all the people who have lost life or property in the wake of Hurricane Ike.

Hurricane Ike Approaching Texas!

Hi everybody. Hurricane Ike is slowly intensifying as it approaches the coast. Ike is now a 110 mph hurricane. The storm is massive and the storm surge is that of a much larger storm. The storm surge expected along the hurricane’s path is estimated to be 20 feet and will be up to 25 in some areas. keep in mind that the protective seawall around Galveston is only 17 feet high. Also keep in mind that many residents that were asked to leave did not. Although there will certainly be wind damage, the main problem with this storm is going to be the storm surge. It is a known fact that most hurricane related deaths are not from wind, they are from drowning in the surge.

Ike’s main feature is not his inner core. The system is an extremely large storm with a huge wind field. He lacks a well defined eye and that has helped him stay weaker. The area that Ike is going to hit has many refineries that pump out about one-fifth of our gasoline stock in the US.
A gauge located on Galveston Island indicates that the water has already risen 9 feet. The main surge will not be felt until just after landfall.

You can get a perfect view of the storm making landfall right here.
In addition to Ike, we are watching Invest 91 in the southern Bahamas. All indications are that this system is not likely to develop but it should be watched all the same. This area is actually a spin-off from Ike that was left behind. I will watch this area for any signs of development.

Hurricane Ike. Update and Radar!

Hi everybody. I am trying to let everybody get a handle on their email so I slowed down the updates after we were out of the cone.

Ike is now headed towards the North Western Gulf of Mexico. Ike is still only at 100 mph or a cat 2 hurricane at the present but some intensification is forecast before landfall. Ike is expected to make landfall on the Texas Coast as a major hurricane.

Ike has been struggling a bit since he is in an area of cooler water temperatures. He has fortunatly missed several of the very warm eddies that often cause storms to go into rapid intensification mode. In addition, his windfiels has expanded tremendously the past 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend all the way out to 115 miles away from the center. Generally speaking, when the windfield expands that much, it is much harder for a system to develop rapidly.

The cyclone is moving west-northwest around the periphery of a high pressure ridge. Ike is expected to gently recurve as he approaches the coast of Texas and into the Central US.
The models are very tightly clustered and Ike is most likely going to hit near Galveston. It should be noted that because of the tremendous wind field, storm surge flooding will occur well in advance of the center, more in advance then is typical of storms of this sixe.

We will be tracking Ike as he approaches landfall.
I have activated the Houston and New Orleans Digital Doppler Radar sites.You can find them HERE. Please bookmark them and you can view the system as it makes landfall. You can view the latest track and windfield here. You can view the latest watches and warnings graphic here.

Hurricane Ike…Still affecting the Keys

Your Latest Florida Weather Information
Hi everybody. Hurricane Ike battered Key West last night with very heavy rains and winds of 50 mph. Street flooding and power outages were scattered throughout the night. Ike is currently moving NW but a w-nw motion is expected later today. The track of Ike has put the state of Texas on alert as possibly the next target. At 11 AM, Ike was moving little and gaining in both strength and size.

He is currently drifting in a general w-nw direction at about 3 mph. We never like to see storms stall. Ike has become a large cyclone with hurricane force winds extending to 80 miles and tropical storm force winds out to 205 miles. Ike is now a 90 mph hurricane. Ike is expected to pass over several very warm eddies in the Gulf. This could lead to significant strengthening in the coming days. There is strong confidence in the models for the next 3 days, thereafter the models spread out a bit but Ike should should be on the Texas coast in about 3 days.

We will be following that landfall with Digital Doppler as he approaches the region.
The tropical storm warning is still in effect from just West of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.
Gusty winds will still impact the Keys today but will subside as the day progresses.
Visitor will be able to start entering the Keys again on Thursday. You should check your reservations before going on your trip.